How Democrats Can Lose Again
Updated: Feb 29
For context and some history behind this prognosis I am re-posting this article from May 2016. I will let you decide how accurate it was.
The Reality of Trump & His Not So Stupid Tactics Which Should Make US All Get Out and Vote To Stop Him. (May 2016).
It has long been said that civil unrest in the US will not come from an ethnic minority but from the "forgotten white fe/male" who believes that their needs are always being overlooked. It is factions of these people who are stocking arsenals of weapons, believe in white supremacy and are horrifically growing in number. Furthermore, according to Political Research Associates 97% of mass shootings are committed by white males.
This may not seem like a sea change that could swing an election unless we look at the race make up in America where we find that +/- 197,000,000 (almost 67%) of US Citizens are white. Add to this that 47% of voting age public are stating they are independent and we can begin to see what Trump is doing - going on a sell out strategy to get as much of the "forgotten white fe/male" vote as he can. If he gets +/- 61,000,000 votes from the right states he will at worst win, and at best he will not so surreptitiously incite a race and humanitarian divide that could lead to a level of civil unrest and a divide in our nation that has not been seen since before the mid 60's.
Everyday we are exposed to surreptitious advertisers using secretive communication practices meant to mislead us about products or services. I believe Trump and his strategists have done their homework and have designed and are executing a brilliant game plan based upon how they believe they can win.
We are not witnessing the rants of a mad man, but a bright, calculating, powerful team of people who have done their homework, crunched the numbers and believe they have found a niche they can exploit to win the election. It is time to stop writing off Trump and his brain trust as this is for real.
Next: Why He Has A High Chance of Winning in 2020
There has never been a President who has gone to the mat for his base like Donald Trump. Whether you agree with his ideology and the policies he wants to implement or not, no one has ever been so myopically focused on delivering on the promises he made to his electorate. There once was a leader who at 5 feet 10, with dark hair, convinced an entire nation of people that you had to be over 6 feet tall with blonde hair and blue eyes. Don't ever think that people cannot be led by those not like them.
In the last election, Dems had a successful black President try really hard to help elect an experienced white woman. Sure, the Democratic Party had its head up its rear end, and went the "same old same old" route, but many of them are still around today. The country was stunned by the number of white women that voted for Trump, and the number of minorities who chose not to vote at all. Dems can cry voter suppression all they want, the fact is that not enough who could, did.
Dems can also cry all they want about Hilary getting more of the popular vote, however under today's rules, that does not win elections so they need to get over it.
People have short memories, markets have continued to do well (they will correct within 3 years), and as has happened in the past, the President will get some of the credit.
Whether or not his global policies will work long term is moot too many, as in their eyes, Trump has put America first, period, end of the story.
Dems can call for the 25th Amendment, and or impeachment, however the last time I checked Trump still goes to bed each night as President. If he is still doing that by the 2020 election, Dems are in trouble if they continue the way they are going. Gains in the mid-terms are nice, but they are not always reflective of a general election.
In summary, the reality is that Dems can say all they want about Trump being the worst President in history, but, if that is the case and there was an election tomorrow, why wouldn't every Democrat in America bet their entire life's net worth on a democratic victory? Because even with all the hypocrisy, all the lies, all the bravado, etc., etc. Dems are still unsure as to whether or not they would win.
So, to the Democratic party itself. It is about to have 900 people run for President. They will smear each other, tear each other apart, wear each other out, and in doing so, they will provide all of the fodder Trump will need to try and discredit whoever wins the primary. If anyone with any credibility runs as an Independent e.g. Howard, they will pull votes from the Dems. If the Democratic party green lights a run by Hilary, they are done before they start. If they choose a truly left liberal , they are done before they start. If any lifetime politician from CA, or NY were to become the nominee, winning would be a huge stretch as think back to the last time a Democratic President hailed from California or New York?
So, who could beat Trump, Michael Bloomberg - probably, Bob Iger - probably, Oprah - a decent shot (she got Barak elected), Michelle - a fair bet. In essence, the Dem's need to start thinking outside of the box, as that is exactly where Trump came from.
The demographics of America have not changed, and Trump still doesn't need or care about getting any other votes than those of white fe/males.
So, I will say almost the same thing that I did in 2016, we are not witnessing the actions of a mad man, but a bright, calculating, powerful team of people who have done their homework, crunched the numbers and believe they have found a niche they can exploit to win another election. In 2016, the Democrats wrote off Trump and his brian trust and look where it got them. The question now is will they heed Einsteins warning, or will they yet again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.